The Supply Correction Arrives
The Boise-Nampa MSA absorbed nearly 4,200 new apartment units in 2024 — more than any prior year on record. That supply surge has shifted negotiating leverage back toward tenants for the first time since 2019.
Average asking rents across the MSA fell approximately 2.1% year-over-year through Q4 2024, with the steepest declines in Meridian and south Nampa.
Cap Rate Landscape by Submarket
- Downtown Boise / North End: 4.8–5.1% for stabilized Class A garden product
- Meridian / Eagle: 5.3–5.8% for newer product
- Nampa / Caldwell: 5.8–6.3%
Income Approach Considerations
Vacancy and concession modeling: Market vacancy has moved from 3–4% (2022) to 7–9% in 2024.
Effective rent vs. face rent: With concessions back in the market, the income approach should use net effective rent.